
GUESSES
AREN’T GOOD ENOUGH
“There
is something fascinating about science. One
gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment in
fact.”
-Mark
Twain (Samuel Clemens) in Life on the Mississippi (February, 1863)
This statement by Samuel Clemens was written a long time ago
and it is interesting that between then and now some things don’t seem to have
changed very much. Certainly
science has improved in many wonderful ways and to the betterment of society.
In the fisheries biology arena however, the truth in this statement still
haunts the rooms where fishery management issues are debated.
Science has improved to be sure with new methods, computers and long data
series now available and in use. There
still is, however, a disconnect between science experts and the fishermen who
are experts on the sea.
As one example of how this disconnect continues to surface
has been in the assessments as to whether lobsters in any quantity are or are
not present in a particular area. In
one case south of the Cape, lobster fishermen were catching lobsters in
significant numbers in a particular area and did so for an extended period of
time. The lobsters were potting
there during the night. Later in
that same area, lobstermen moved their gear, although there were still lobsters
there, because draggers were due to move in to drag during the day.
Those draggers didn’t catch lobsters.
The lobsters were there but not moving around during the day and were
tucked away in boroughs. Survey
tows done by science teams are mainly done during the day and therefore do those
tows really show a true picture of what lobsters are in the area?
How often have we heard lobstermen say “if the biologists could only
see what we see”? Trying to
connect these two views together has been and still is a major problem.
In a recent survey south of the Cape, scientists recorded
lobster abundances significantly above what they were expecting to see.
Could fishermen there be right when they were reporting that they had
been seeing a lot of lobsters in their pots? At a recent ASMFC meeting
discussion dealing with Area 2, biologists to their credit, admitted that they
were uncomfortable recommending the low target allowable catch limit that their
data had suggested because it was based on a preliminary survey done with a
general purpose tow not necessarily designed to catch lobsters.
To accept that limited information gleaned from that tow as fact would be
akin to basing a stock status report on one or two lobstermen’s accounts of
how the stock was doing in an entire area.
Would that type of information be accepted as fact?….probably not.
The lobster science community works hard trying to gather as
much data as they can with limited staff, time and money and what they do
assemble is useful to a point. It
does give a sketch or show in some cases a trend.
It is, however, not good enough on which to base major management
decisions that could have serious adverse social, community and financial
affects on so many fishermen. The
product that is too often developed is based on conjecture or no more then an
educated guess and comes from a trifling investment in fact.
There needs to be some level of information below which no
management decision can be made. Good
and adequate science should include every possible piece of information, the
more the better. What is available
from the fishermen themselves is perhaps better and certainly no worse than what
is now used and called “best science available”.
Combining the two could substantially improve what is then available.
Fishermen have been willing to help and have been willing to
add what they see into the database. Some
scientists have balked at letting fishermen gather information and also have
been reluctant to use that information. Here is another disconnect when it comes to making
improvements.
Only by connecting these two experts, the fisherman and the
biologist, can we hope to get enough information to make decisions that everyone
can at lease accept even if they aren’t pleased with the result.
Acceptance of that information and any resulting management action, if
needed, would improve the chances that those actions will work where it is
intended, in the ocean and not just in print in some plan.
We would encourage the managers to insist on and foster the
establishment of scientist and fishermen cooperative initiatives that can
increase available data so that the information to be used is adequate, timely
and credible.
More facts equal less conjecture.
Bill Adler
Executive Director